Joerg Wuttke, the president emeritus of the EU Chamber in China, is in Australia to address the Asia Society on Monday about the economic trajectory of the world\u2019s second-largest economy.<\/p>\n
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Joerg Wuttke is president emeritus of the EU Chamber in China.<\/span><\/p>\n He said its days of blockbuster economic growth were over because Xi was willing to exchange growth for ideology.<\/p>\n He said he did not believe this would lead to conflict over democratically ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its own and Xi has threatened to take control of, with military force if necessary.<\/p>\n Wuttke said that although Xi had to service his domestic crowd with patriotic statements, he would assess the risks and costs of starting a war as too great. Xi was \u201cnot a man in a hurry when it comes to Taiwan\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cI really don\u2019t see any military conflict in Taiwan, everything I hear here is too rational,\u201d Wuttke said in an interview over Zoom from Beijing, where he has been based since 1997.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s a man who doesn\u2019t gamble. Unlike Putin, he\u2019s a man that wants security and controllable security \u2013 and a war in Taiwan is anything but.<\/p>\n \u201cI guess that he will not make the mistake of going down the road that has unintended consequences as he has seen from the US in Iraq and Afghanistan: it is easy to start a war and it\u2019s very difficult to end it and win it.\u201d<\/p>\n Wuttke counts Kevin Rudd among his friends and described Australia\u2019s former prime minister and current ambassador to the US as one of the world\u2019s top thinkers on China.<\/p>\n Rudd\u2019s 2022 book The Avoidable War <\/em>argues China and the US can coexist without military conflict in the form of \u201cmanaged strategic competition\u201d.<\/p>\n US President Joe Biden administration has been trying to calm relations with Beijing.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>AP<\/cite><\/p>\n The Biden administration has been trying to calm relations with Beijing, but China has refused to re-establish a hotline for their militaries to use to prevent skirmishes or accidental escalations.<\/p>\n Xi boycotted the weekend\u2019s G20 summit in neighbouring India, in a major snub to the host country and rival for leader of the non-Western-aligned countries, sometimes referred to as the Global South.<\/p>\n Western diplomats say it was yet another example of China obstructing multilateral attempts to reach consensus on issues of global concern, including the war in Ukraine and climate change.<\/p>\n Asked if there was anyone who could persuade Xi to adopt a more collaborative posture, Wuttke said it was impossible.<\/p>\n \u201cNo, I see no possibility for anyone from abroad to influence him because the man has decided to be chairman of everything, and he makes the decisions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cAnd hence, he cannot, for the sake of it \u2013 revise decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n China\u2019s economic coercion and the supply chain gaps exposed by the pandemic have led to Western countries adopting policies of de-risking and diversification, setting up potential friction between businesses that have profited from their Chinese operations and governments that want to lessen their public\u2019s dependence on authoritarian states.<\/p>\n Earlier this year, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe would be seeking to \u201cde-risk\u201d from China. This language has gone on to be adopted by the White House, Wuttke\u2019s native Germany and, most recently, Australia\u2019s Treasurer Jim Chalmers.<\/p>\n Wuttke strongly backed the EU\u2019s policy and said he was proud to have advised von der Leyen\u2019s office and contributed to such a defining speech.<\/p>\n \u201cDe-risking was genius. It really distinguishes itself from decoupling,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n He said de-risking was already happening, citing a \u201cnotable slowdown in foreign investment\u201d in China. \u201cFrankly speaking, China was the master in de-risking, they were teaching us for 15 years how they were trying to de-risk from Europe and the US,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Treasurer Jim Chalmers has already warned Australia\u2019s economy would not be immune from China\u2019s economic slowdown.<\/p>\n Wuttke said Xi\u2019s desire for total control would see the Chinese economy struggle, especially as the low-hanging policy fruits that had generated economic activity had already been plucked.<\/p>\n \u201cChina will definitely have to live with a much lower growth projection … this leadership is willing to sacrifice economic growth for the sake of ideology,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe old equation was always that China does anything to add economic growth because that was the perception of what keeps us in office.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\u201cDe-risking is genius\u201d<\/h3>\n
Xi\u2019s control sacrifices growth<\/h3>\n
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