Property values set to plateau but political housing stoush continues

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Growth in property values has slowed and the peak of the market is tipped to be close, with values expected to remain stable as more homes come up for sale and buyers remain wary of high borrowing costs.

But the political debate over affordability and homeownership will continue into next year after the Coalition and Greens voted to delay action on one of the government’s key housing policies until April.

Home values are set to stabilise next year as listings continue to increase but affordability pressures bite.Credit: Dan Peled

Home values rose 0.6 per cent in November, according to CoreLogic, the slowest rate of growth since they began rising in February.

The property analytics company’s research director, Tim Lawless, said after a lift in national home values through 2023, next year would be very different.

“If this isn’t the peak, then it’s probably just around the corner,” he said.

“[In 2024], we don’t expect values to rise anywhere near as much as they have this year.”

Property values in Perth and Brisbane grew by 1.9 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively over the month.

Melbourne led the slowdown, with values going backwards by 0.1 per cent, while Sydney grew by just 0.3 per cent.

Lawless said this would have been partially due to the Reserve Bank’s 0.25 percentage point increase in interest rates to a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent in November, but there were other factors at play.

“There’s more stock to choose from, that’s taking some heat out of the market as buyers have more choice,” he said.

The sharpest slowdown in value growth was at the top end of the Sydney and Melbourne property markets.

Lawless said that was generally a good barometer of a change in the property cycle, and growth was likely to stabilise from here.

While home values were not expected to rise significantly next year, affordability was likely to remain under the microscope.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot more debate across politicians and policymakers around housing affordability and homeownership, maybe reigniting some of the discussions around investment incentives as well, such as negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions,” he said.

On Thursday, Housing Minister Julie Collins introduced legislation for the Help to Buy scheme, under which the government will contribute up to 40 per cent of a new home’s value for 40,000 low-to-middle-income buyers.

In a Senate vote, the Coalition and Greens voted to extend a committee reporting deadline on the legislation until April, two months later than the government wanted.

Collins criticised the Coalition for joining with the Greens to delay the housing bill.

“We want to help more Australians buy a home, the only thing they want to buy is more time to grandstand. We want to open the door to more Australians owning a home, but they just want to slam it shut,” she said in question time.

Opposition housing spokesman Michael Sukkar said the Coalition would closely consider the legislation, but said such schemes were not a broad solution to the housing crisis.

“Labor’s underwhelming Help to Buy is too little, too late, which relies on the states and territory governments to roll out the scheme,” he said.

“Those who want to buy a home want to own it themselves, they don’t want the government owning a portion and have [Prime Minister] Anthony Albanese sitting at the kitchen table.”

Greens leader Adam Bandt said the shared equity scheme was inadequate and could make the housing crisis worse. He said the party would closely examine the legislation in the committee inquiry process.

“Labor is tinkering around the edges of the housing crisis instead of stopping unlimited rent increases and ending unfair tax breaks for rich property moguls,” Bandt said.

“We will look at this legislation but are concerned about approaches that allow a tiny proportion of applicants to buy a house while potentially pushing up prices for everyone else.”

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