Expert gives verdict on when Ukraine counter-offensive will end as snow sets
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is set to finish in just days as the snow has already started to fall heavily on the battlefield and the changing terrain is making war manoeuvres almost impossible.
Dr Alan Mendoza, the founder of the trans-Atlantic foreign policy Henry Jackson Society think tank, noted that, with the coming winter, “nature’s barriers” will prevent further progress on the frontline.
He told Express.co.uk: “Of course there’s a point in time when winter sets in and there isn’t really any prospect of movements on the frontline. And I think we’re approaching that soon.”
Referring to the rapid counter-offensive push achieved in autumn 2022, which resulted in Ukrainians snatching back from Russian occupiers the city of Kherson, Dr Mendoza continued: “In reality, right now, although Ukraine has made advances, these are not on the scale of the advances they made at a similar time last year, when they took significant territory.
“So it looks like at present they will have to call a halt, in (the) latest a week or two.”
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The analyst believes that, for the next few months, the southern frontline won’t move much further than the bridgehead on the eastern side of the Dnipro River created by Ukraine in recent weeks.
He continued: “However, given that they’ve made it over, which was significant anyway because let’s not forget the Dnipro River is a major barrier, there is the possibility that they could consolidate gains and punch through it further.”
Russian military bloggers started showing concerns about reports of a Ukrainian movement across the Dnipro, which has effectively been the southern frontline for months, in late October.
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Some Western observers expressed disappointment in the pace at which Ukrainian troops moved east and south throughout the summer.
But Ukrainians had to make their way through a heavily mined territory, the result of the fortification made by Russia along the almost 1,000-kilometre-long frontline.
Dr Mendoza said: “I think it’s difficult to say whether Ukraine will be disappointed with this because the Russians were heavily dug-in.
“Ukraine has, of course, got a foothold on the riverbank but the frontline has not really moved.”
The lack of movement through the occupied territories was also acknowledged earlier this month by Ukraine’s Armed Forces Commander in Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who said in an interview with the Economist: “Just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.
“There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
The general suggested the war had entered a phase of attritional fighting, which means no side is able to make much progress unless there is a technological breakthrough.
General Zaluzhnyi’s remarks were slammed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said the war had not reached a stalemate and accused him of making “the aggressor’s job easier”.
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