Labour poll lead hits 20 points ahead of two crunch by-elections

Labour poll lead hits 20 points and more than half of Brits will not consider voting Tory as two crunch by-elections loom

Labour has extended its lead over the Tories to 20 points ahead of two crunch by-elections, a new poll has shown.

The latest Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found Sir Keir Starmer’s party are now backed by 45 per cent of voters, with the Conservatives supported by 20 per cent.

It represents a fresh blow for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of upcoming by-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth next month.

The seats were won by the Tories at the 2019 general election, but Labour will fancy their chances of overturning large majorities in both constituencies.

Meanwhile, in a separate opinion poll, more than half of voters said there were no circumstances in which they would consider backing the Tories at the next general election.

The latest Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found Sir Keir Starmer’s party are now backed by 45% of voters, with the Conservatives supported by 20%

Just 15% of voters found the Government competent, while 54% found the Government incompetent – the Government’s lowest net competency rating since Rishi Sunak became PM

Sir Keir (43%) led Mr Sunak (28%) by 15 points when voters were asked who would be the better PM at this moment

The YouGov survey, for the strategy consultancy WPI, found that 54 per cent of voters would ‘definitely’ not support the Conservatives at the next election.

This compared with 32 per cent who said the same of Labour.

Further research by YouGov showed that Mr Sunak’s personal ratings have slipped to a new low of minus 41.

It found the PM’s favourability score is at its lowest since he took office in October last year, with 26 per cent having a positive view of him and 67 per cent negative.

Worryingly for Mr Sunak, his score was marginally worse than the figure for Boris Johnson as he left power – although it is slightly better than the minus 48 rating for the Conservative Party more broadly.

By contrast Keir Starmer’s favourability stood at minus 20, below the minus 11 recorded for Labour.

In the Redfield & Wilton survey, conducted on 10 September, Mr Sunak’s approval rating was minus 21 per cent, which was his second lowest as PM as recorded by the pollster.

It found 25 per cent approved of his overall job performance against 46 per cent who disapproved.

The poll also showed the Government’s net competency rating at minus 39 per cent.

Just 15 per cent of voters found the Government competent, while 54 per cent found the Government incompetent.

This was the Government’s lowest net competency rating since Mr Sunak became PM.

Sir Keir (43 per cent) led Mr Sunak (28 per cent) by 15 points when voters were asked who would be the better PM at this moment. 

The Redfield & Wilton poll was conducted in the wake of the ‘crumbly’ concrete scandal in schools, and the escape of a terror suspect from a London prison.

The Mid Bedfordshire by-election, prompted by the resignation of ex-Cabinet minister Nadine Dorries, has already been called for 19 October.

Labour will be looking to overturn the Tories’ 25,000-vote majority from the 2019 general election in the seat.

The Tamworth by-election was triggered by the resignation of Chris Pincher after the ex-Tory minister failed with an appeal against an eight-week suspension from Parliament over groping allegations. 

Mr Pincher retained his Tamworth seat with a near 20,000-vote majority in 2019.

The Staffordshire constituency was last held by Labour in 2005.

Mr Sunak has admitted the two by-elections will be ‘difficult’ for the Conservatives.

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